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North Carolina Capitol at Dusk NC Raleigh USA

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Early voting is underway in North Carolina, and Republicans are hoping a “red wave” will deliver them a super-majority in the state legislature. Doing so would allow them to override Democratic Governor Roy Cooper’s vetoes.

Andrew Dunn, writing at Longleaf Politics doesn’t think the GOP will be able to pull off big enough gains in both the Senate and the House:

The GOP currently holds 28 seats in the N.C. Senate and 69 in the N.C. House. A veto-proof supermajority requires 30 seats and 72 seats, respectively.

New electoral districts resulting from the 2020 Census (and court battles, of course) shift more voting power to deep blue urban areas and the suburbs, which have trended more liberal in their voting patterns.

The Republican majority is safe. A supermajority is difficult.

The excellent analysis of the partisan leanings of North Carolina’s districts by the John Locke Foundation shows that Republicans will win a comfortable majority by holding onto seats that already are solidly or leaning red.

The supermajority is considerably more difficult. Republicans would not only need to sweep the few true toss-up districts, but also pick up a handful of districts that lean Democratic. In a true red wave year, this is doable but not a guarantee.

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