Below average hurricane season predicted in the Atlantic

June marks the beginning of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. Each year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) releases a forecast outlining what to expect for the upcoming season. 

NOAA is predicting a below-normal hurricane season with 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). 

Meteorologists say the below average season is due to El Niño conditions in the Atlantic. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. 

“There’s a 98% chance of El Niño conditions occurring later this season, and an 80% chance that this El Niño will be moderate to strong,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs at a recent press conference. “In the Atlantic, the El Niño increases the vertical wind shear, which disrupts the outflow at higher levels, makes it harder for development of the eastern waves coming off of Africa to strengthen in the storms.”

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.” 

“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.” 

NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs stressed the importance of the use of new technology in forecasting for the 2026 season. 

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said Jacobs. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”

Earlier in May, the National Weather Service hosted its annual National Hurricane Preparedness Week. Alongside state agencies in North Carolina, the weather service hopes to improve readiness ahead of the June 1 start of the season. 

“There’s no such thing as just a Cat 1, just a tropical storm, just a Cat 2, that is absolutely not the case,” said Graham. “It doesn’t matter what it is, you got to look at the size, the forward motion, little wiggles matter on the impacts, even the smallest storm. If it’s slow enough and big enough, it’s going to create catastrophic flooding and storm surge. There’s no such thing as ‘Hurricane Just-a’, you got to make sure the public pays attention to every single one of these systems and the actual impacts, not the category, not the name, but the actual impacts associated with that storm, and that includes the tornadoes, heavy rain, damaging winds, even the high surf and rip currents as well, including storm surge.” 

“Below average hurricane season predicted in the Atlantic” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.