Elon pollster: Senate race likely to tighten despite Cooper’s 11-point lead

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper holds an 11-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina’s US Senate race, according to a new Elon University poll released Aug. 12. But the poll’s director says he expects the contest to tighten as voters get to know the GOP nominee better.

Cooper drew 53% support among likely voters — those who say it is “absolutely certain” they will cast a ballot in November — compared with 42% for Whatley in the race for the open seat being vacated by Republican US Sen. Thom Tillis. Libertarian Shannon Bray took 2% and Green Party candidate Michael Dublin 1%. Two percent were undecided.

The Elon survey was fielded July 23-31, before Whatley’s campaign began ramping up its fall advertising push. Carolina Journal will release its own August poll of the Senate race on Aug. 13.

Among all registered voters — a broader group than the likely-voter screen — Cooper leads 51% to 35%, with 11% undecided or planning to vote for someone else and 3% saying they do not plan to vote.

Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, cautioned that the race may be closer than it appears.

“The North Carolina U.S. Senate race has been shaped from the beginning as a contest between a very well-known Democrat and a relatively unknown Republican,” Husser said in a press release. “While Roy Cooper continues to be much more familiar to voters than Michael Whatley, Whatley’s familiarity among voters has increased meaningfully between March and July. Moreover, among the roughly half of voters who have heard a great deal or some about Whatley, the race becomes very close. This leads me to expect some tightening in polls over the next two months.”

The numbers back up Whatley’s name-recognition deficit. More than eight-in-10 registered voters say they have heard “a great deal” or “some” about Cooper, who served two terms as governor and 16 years as state attorney general. Just 53% say the same about Whatley, the former Republican National Committee and North Carolina GOP chairman who has never run for office in the state prior to this year. One-in-five voters say they have heard nothing at all about him.

Among voters who have heard a great deal about Whatley, the ballot is a 45%-45% tie, and among those who have heard some, Whatley leads 49% to 46%. Cooper’s overall margin is built on voters who know little or nothing about his opponent.

Whatley is making up ground, though. The share of voters who have never heard of him dropped from 30% in the March Elon poll to 20% now, and his net favorability improved from minus nine to minus four over the same period. Cooper’s net favorability rose from plus 14 to plus 18. Overall, 53% of registered voters view Cooper favorably compared with 36% for Whatley.

The poll also found President Donald Trump underwater in North Carolina, with 36% of residents approving of his job performance and 54% disapproving — essentially unchanged from March. Democratic Gov. Josh Stein sits at 46% approval and 25% disapproval, up from 43% approval in March, though 30% are unsure.

Elsewhere in the survey, opposition to technology data centers has grown sharply. A majority, 53%, say they would oppose a large data center being built in their community, up from 44% in March, while just 20% would support one. Opposition crosses party lines, including 61% of independents, 55% of Democrats, and 41% of Republicans.

“As local governments in North Carolina have grappled with land use regulations and economic development questions regarding data centers over the last five months, we found that data centers have become more unpopular across major political and demographic divides,” Husser said.

On election integrity, 63% of registered voters are very or somewhat confident that this year’s election process will be fair, while 29% have little or no confidence. Nearly four-in-10, 37%, call voter fraud a major problem in national elections — including 64% of Republicans — and 55% say Joe Biden fairly won the 2020 election, compared with 33% who say Trump did.

The Elon University Poll surveyed 800 North Carolina adults, including 717 registered voters, and was conducted July 23-31 by the polling firm YouGov through online panels. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.42 percentage points for registered voters and 5.6 points for the likely-voter sample.

“Elon pollster: Senate race likely to tighten despite Cooper’s 11-point lead” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.