‘Crystal Ball’ moves 2 NC congressional races toss-up

Two North Carolina congressional races are now among the nation’s most closely watched, after Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved both the 1st and 11th Congressional Districts into the “Toss-up” category in its latest analysis of the 2026 fight for control of the US House of Representatives.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics announced Thursday that it shifted North Carolina’s 1st and 11th Congressional Districts from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up” as part of a broader update expanding the number of competitive House races nationwide from 15 to 20.

The changes reflect analysts’ assessment of the current political environment, candidate fundraising, district demographics, and other factors. They are not predictions of election outcomes.

Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik said that the revised ratings better align with the publication’s overall expectation that Democrats currently have a slight advantage in the race for the House majority.

“We’re revamping our House ratings this week, which has the effect of bringing the number of seats at least leaning to each party to rough parity after redistricting helped Republicans build an edge in our ratings a few months ago,” Kondik said.

Following the latest changes, Republicans have 208 seats rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican, compared with 207 for Democrats; while 20 districts are now classified as Toss-ups.

“This gives both parties pathways to a majority, but we’d still expect Democrats to do better among the Toss-ups,” Kondik said. “Our best guess at this point would be Democrats winning a majority in the low-to-mid 220s.”

NC-11 moves to Toss-up

In western North Carolina, Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-NC11, saw his race downgraded after what Crystal Ball described as a weak fundraising quarter and an ongoing House Ethics Committee investigation.

“Speaking of campaign finance, one alarmingly weak recently-reported quarter came from Rep. Chuck Edwards (R, NC-11), who raised just $155,000 in the second quarter and is dealing with a House Ethics Committee investigation over potentially inappropriate relationships with staffers,” Kondik said.

Edwards is seeking reelection in a district that voted for President Donald Trump by just under 10 percentage points in 2024. His Democratic challenger is Jamie Ager.

According to the analysis, Ager has posted strong fundraising numbers while also benefiting from family political ties.

“Edwards’s challenger is Jamie Ager (D), who has fundraised well and whose grandfather held a version of this seat in the 1980s,” Kondik said.

Even with the rating change, Crystal Ball noted that the district retains a Republican lean.

“The district backed Trump by a shade under 10 points, so it’s also clearly red-leaning, but, again, the environment could sand down some of that generic Republican lean, and Edwards has some problems. So we’re calling this a Toss-up too,” Kondik said.

NC-1 also reclassified

Crystal Ball also moved Rep. Don Davis’s reelection into the Toss-up column.

The northeastern North Carolina district was substantially reshaped through redistricting and supported Trump by about 55% in 2024.

“Meanwhile, both Reps. Don Davis (D, NC-1) … were significantly hurt by redistricting, finding themselves in districts where Trump got about 55% of the vote in 2024,” Kondik said.

The report argues that a favorable national environment for Democrats could offset some of the Republican advantage built into the district.

“Simply going from 2024 … to 2026, when Democrats might win the national House vote by half a dozen points or more, could shave a lot off of the new Republican lean in those districts,” Kondik said.

The analysis also points to Davis’ electoral history.

“Davis has already won a pair of tough races in different, albeit less red, versions of this seat in recent years,” Kondik said.

Davis will face Republican Laurie Buckhout in a rematch of their 2024 race.

National picture remains competitive

Crystal Ball continues to view Democrats as slight favorites to win the House, citing national polling showing a Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot and broader historical trends that often challenge the president’s party during midterm elections.

At the same time, the report says Republicans retain a viable path to keeping the majority through strong candidate recruitment, fundraising advantages, and favorable district maps created after redistricting.

“So the door is not closed on Republicans holding the majority even as Democrats are better-positioned thanks to the overall political environment and broader midterm trends,” Kondik said.

While political analysts regularly update race ratings throughout an election cycle, those assessments are snapshots based on available data rather than forecasts of the final result. Campaigns, fundraising, debates, national events, and voter turnout can all reshape a race before ballots are cast.

The report ratings may also influence where national parties, political action committees, and outside groups invest their resources.

“‘Crystal Ball’ moves 2 NC congressional races toss-up” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.