Fox News: Cooper leads Whatley by 9 points

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley, former chairman of the Republican National Committee and the NCGOP, 53% to 44%, according to a new Fox News poll, in the race for the open Senate seat currently held by Sen. Thom Tillis, who is not running for re-election.

The gap widens to 57% to 42%, with Cooper taking a 15-point lead amongst those who are “extremely interested in the election;” and a 13-point lead, 55% to 42%, amongst those “extremely motivated to vote.”

Of Whatley’s supporters, 52% say they are voting “for him,” and 46% say they are voting “against Cooper.” For Cooper’s supporters, 84% say they are voting “for him,” only 13% say they are voting “against Whatley.”

“North Carolina Democrats are playing the same old playbook they’ve used since 2014 — lead in July and lose in November. 2026 will be no different,” DJ Griffin, spokesman for Whatley’s campaign, told the Carolina Journal. “Career politician Roy Cooper, with his political career stretching across 5 decades, started with universal name ID and has now spent millions on revisionist history biographical ads, but is still stuck where he started. That’s because of his soft-on-crime and anti-working-families record as Governor Cooper. There are three candidates in this race: Candidate Cooper, Governor Cooper, and Michael Whatley. Michael Whatley is going to win in November.”

Cooper is not only ahead in polling but also in campaign fundraising, having outraised Whatley for two consecutive quarters. 

According to Q2 campaign finance reports, Cooper outraised Whatley by almost three times, raising $14.8 million compared to Whatley’s $5 million. Similarly, in Q1, Cooper raised $13.8 million, compared to Whatley’s $5 million. 

“Public opinion polls are snapshots in time, not crystal balls,” Donald Bryson, CEO of the John Locke Foundation, told the Carolina Journal. 

Bryson emphasized that a poll taken several months ahead of the election is not predictive of what will happen at the ballot box in November. 

“Campaigns change, events intervene, and voters continue to make up their minds,” continued Bryson. 

“The gap between Cooper and Whatley is important, but not as much as it would seem at first glance,” Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, told the Carolina Journal. “It has fluctuated widely from poll to poll (between four and 11 percentage points) and will almost certainly narrow between Labor Day and Election Day. However, Cooper has struggled to get past 50% in those polls, an uncomfortable position for a candidate in his sixth statewide race against an unknown opponent early in the election. The Fox poll has him at 53%. If he stays above 50%, it will not matter that Whatley closes the gap in October. A win by 2% is just as much of a win as a win by 10%.”

On July 29, the Senate Leadership Fund announced a $17 million investment, the inaugural round of a $71 million commitment to boost Whatley. The $17 million is earmarked for a summer ad campaign targeting Cooper. 

“Fox News: Cooper leads Whatley by 9 points” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.