Major ranking moves NC’s Senate race from ‘toss up’ to ‘lean D’

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted the race for North Carolina’s open 2026 US Senate seat, currently held by Sen. Thom Tillis, who will not be running for re-election, from a toss-up race to lean Democrat. 

Former Gov. Roy Cooper is running on the Democratic ticket, while former Republican National Committee and NCGOP chairman Michael Whatley is running on the Republican ticket.  

According to the May 2026 Carolina Journal Poll, a survey of 600 likely voters, 49.8% of voters would support Cooper, while 38.7% would support Whatley. These results showed an 11.1-point lead for Cooper — a significant gain over March, when Cooper led by 7.8 points.

In the previous March 2026 poll, Whatley polled at 41.1%, and Cooper at 48.9%.

“The rating change for North Carolina was made along with changes to other states, reflecting a national shift in favor of Democrats,” Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, told the Carolina Journal. “While I expect the roughly 10% advantage Cooper currently has in the polls to close as we get closer to Election Day, he still has a clear advantage. There is a reason Democrats have struggled in US Senate races in North Carolina, however. If Whatley can tie Cooper to the national Democratic Party, he can make this race much more competitive.”

In North Carolina, Cooper increasingly appears to hold the advantage, according to the Center for Politics. Given his long track record and statewide success, there was always a strong argument for viewing him as the frontrunner once he entered the race nearly a year ago. Still, the Center for Politics initially rated the contest a toss-up because North Carolina has consistently been a difficult state for Democrats to win at the federal level, particularly in Senate races.

“When this seat was last up in 2020, Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham led in most public polls and appeared well-positioned for much of the campaign, only to fall about a point and a half short on Election Day, hurt both by personal scandal and also Donald Trump’s presidential victory in the state,” wrote the Center for Politics. “More broadly, Democrats have repeatedly come close in high-profile federal races in North Carolina without quite getting over the finish line.”

Early in the election cycle, Cooper was polling in the mid-40s. Given the Democrats’ track record for falling short in closely contested races in North Carolina, this would not necessarily be enough to flip the seat. But the Center for Politics cited Cooper now polling at almost 50% as the reason for the ratings change. 

“Roy Cooper’s double-digit lead over Michael Whatley is real — but it’s not just a generic midterm backlash,” said Donald Bryson, CEO of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal. “Cooper’s 24 years of statewide name recognition is a massive advantage that no challenger can easily overcome. At the same time, Republicans are fighting headwinds: President Trump’s approval is underwater, while a majority of North Carolinians say the country is on the wrong track. That combination makes this Senate race even more difficult for the party in the White House.”

Bryson has also repeatedly emphasized that polls are not “crystal balls,” but are “snapshots in time.” While useful for tracking trends over time, a poll conducted in the spring cannot be treated as an accurate prediction of a November election. 

Cooper is outpacing Whatley not only in polling but in fundraising. According to Q1 finance reports, Cooper raised more than $13.8 million in the first quarter, with more than 95% of donations of $100 or less coming from supporters in all 100 counties, according to the campaign. Cooper’s first-quarter fundraising numbers are just shy of Whatley’s total cash-in-hand of $16 million, with Whatley pulling in $5 million in the first quarter, the campaign reported. 

The Center for Politics did not respond to the Carolina Journal’s request for comment by the time of publication.

“Major ranking moves NC’s Senate race from ‘toss up’ to ‘lean D’” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.