Republicans need 2 of 3 NC Senate toss-ups to maintain supermajority

The Republicans’ road to maintaining — and potentially expanding —their majority in the NC Senate depends on the three most competitive districts in the Senate. With the sudden resignation of state Sen. Terrence Everitt the GOP has one additional path to maintaining their supermajority, as his district is now more competitive.

According to the John Locke Foundation’s Civitas Partisan Index (CPI), there are three toss-up districts in the North Carolina Senate — Senate Districts 7, 11, and 18. Two of these (SD-7 and SD-11) are held by Republicans — state Sens. Michael Lee and Lisa Barnes. Only SD-18 is held by a Democrat, newly appointed Sen. Haseeb Fatmi. 

Fatmi was appointed to fill Everitt’s seat when he resigned on May 1 and withdrew from the 2026 race. Fatmi was elected to serve on the Wake County Board of Commissioners in November 2025 and will replace Everitt on the November 2026 ballot. Republican Chris Stock and Libertarian Brad Hessel are also running in SD-18

“Barnes and Lee have proven time and again that they can win in competitive districts,” Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, told the Carolina Journal. “Even with the political headwinds Republicans appear to be facing this year, it is far from certain they will lose those seats. Those same political winds would likely have helped Everitt win relatively comfortably, but his withdrawal and subsequent replacement by a political unknown in Haseeb Fatmi give Republicans hope of a win in the 18th District this November.”

Barnes represents the SD-11 and is running to defend her seat against James Gailliard, who represented the NC House District 25 from Jan. 1, 2019, to Jan. 1, 2023. A Libertarian, Gavin Bell, is also on the ballot. 

“We’re still in the middle of session, so my focus right now is on the work in front of us in Raleigh,” Lee told the Carolina Journal. ‘This year we’re delivering on the priorities I hear about every day back home: keeping more money in families’ pockets, real cost-of-living relief, expanded access to health care, safer communities, continued progress in our schools, and meaningful support for the coast. That said, New Hanover County is home. It’s where my family lives, where I built my law practice, and where I’ve had the privilege of representing my neighbors for the better part of a decade.” 

Lee has served in the state Senate for more than 10 years, first from 2014 to 2018. He lost his 2018 election but was re-elected in 2020. He originally served in the SD-9 before the 2023 redistricting, then moved to the SD-7. Democrat Jessica Bichler is running to unseat Lee.

“I’m running again because there’s still work to do and because I love this community,” said Lee. “District 7 has always been one of the most competitive seats in the state, and I take nothing for granted. The outside money will come, the attacks will come; they always do. But I trust the voters of New Hanover County to look at the record, to look at who has actually shown up and delivered for them, and to make their own decision. I feel good about where things stand, and I’m grateful for the support I continue to hear from neighbors across this county.”

Of North Carolina’s 50 Senate seats, the chamber includes 16 safely Democratic seats, one likely Democratic seat, two Democratic-leaning seats, three toss-up seats, three Republican-leaning seats, nine likely Republican seats, and 16 safely Republican seats, according to the CPI. Republicans hold 25 likely or safe seats in the Senate and must pick up only one of the six lean R or toss-up seats to retain their majority. For a super majority (the 30 votes needed for a veto override), Republicans need two of the three toss-up seats and all of the lean R seats. 

“Republicans need 2 of 3 NC Senate toss-ups to maintain supermajority” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.