Cooper, Whatley, and the messaging battle over Helene

In a lot of US Senate races, at this point in the process we wouldn’t even know who all the declared primary candidates are. But the 2026 North Carolina US Senate race is a different beast, since we’ve known for months who the (very likely) general election nominees for each party will be.

Caveat here, of course, to say that someone else may enter the Democratic Party primary and win by attrition if former Gov. Roy Cooper has some Robinson-level skeletons leap from the closet. Or maybe, Trump will change his mind on Whatley over some personal falling-out (it’s happened a few times before), and a different Republican will be appointed; I mean selected. There’s also another Republican in the primary, Don Brown, whose campaign could take fire.

It’s possible. But without those dramatic developments, it looks like former RNC and NCGOP Chairman Michael Whatley will face off against former Democratic state attorney general and governor Roy Cooper — two major players who have all the right connections and can raise boatloads of money.

And both these men are proceeding as if this will be the case, focusing fire on each other, not any potential primary opponents. Polling and money give Cooper the edge currently. The latest CJ Poll shows a 46-42 lead for Cooper; and Jim Stirling at North State Data says Cooper’s campaign and PAC have collectively raised $16 million, while Whatley’s campaign and PAC have raised $6 million.

Helene Messaging

I’ve frequently heard from conservative political analysts in the state that, as far as messaging goes, Cooper’s main weaknesses would be COVID-19 lockdowns and bungling recovery after major hurricanes — especially Hurricanes Matthew and Florence, and the more-recent devastation from Hurricane Helene.

But surprisingly, rather than wait and allow Whatley to own the latter issue, Cooper has focused much of his messaging on Helene. Looking through Cooper’s campaign Youtube channel and social media posts, health care might be the only issue that rivals Helene in frequency of messages.

Cooper has a lot of positive messaging on the subject, highlighting his own role and the resilience of those in the mountains.

But because a lot of the people in the mountains report having more frustrations with the federal than the state response, and because President Donald Trump put Whatley in charge of the federal Helene response, Cooper is attempting to flip the script and make it a campaign liability for Whatley.

Cooper’s team is running early ads hitting Whatley on this issue, asking, “Where’s Whatley?”

Cooper has also appeared on left-wing media, like MSNBC, to hit Whatley on this issue. Beyond the ads and TV appearances, it’s a drumbeat Cooper’s campaign is hitting on social media over and over.

The question is: Can Cooper and the Democrats successfully shift this issue from a risk for their candidate to an effective attack line?

In a sign that Whatley also plans on incorporating hurricane response mismanagement into his messaging plan, the campaign’s first ad, released on Sept. 23, was titled, “Hurricane Roy,” and largely focused on Cooper’s response to the hurricane.

Whatley’s campaign has also had posts responding to a CNN segment, pushing back against a post by Cooper, and marking the anniversary of the storm’s landing.

But while Helene is a major messaging point early in the campaign, Whatley has focused a bit more on crime, hitting Cooper by saying he is soft on crime and is “fighting harder for criminals” than for victims. He especially attacks Cooper by connecting him to chaotic pretrial release for violent offenders, a key issue after the murder of Iryna Zarutska on Charlotte transit.

RNC spokesperson Delanie Bomar sent out a press release this week saying, “Whatley defines the race around crime,” and introducing the “Mugshot Mondays” campaign by Whatley. Bomar says, “The digital series spotlights Roy Cooper’s soft-on-crime policies that have allowed violent criminals to roam North Carolina streets.”

In the September 2025 Carolina Journal Poll of 600 NC likely voters, we found that, “When asked what issues matter most to them in the 2026 Senate race, 29.1% said cost of living/inflation, 17.9% said the candidate’s political party, 10.3% said immigration/border security, 10.2% said jobs/economy, 8.1% said healthcare, 4.9% said crime, 3.5% said education, 2.6% said abortion, 0.6% said energy/electricity bill, 8.4% said something else, and 4.4% were unsure.”

The poll didn’t include hurricane response as an option, but it appears it will be a topic in the campaign. This will likely be especially true for ads targeting areas that have been hit by recent storms. Which candidate ultimately wins may in part be decided by which is able to convince the public that the other carries greater blame for bungling the response to Hurricane Helene.

“Cooper, Whatley, and the messaging battle over Helene” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.