Latest CJ Poll has warning to GOP on tariffs, prices

At one level, President Donald Trump could look at the latest Carolina Journal Poll of 600 North Carolina likely general election voters and see his support mostly holding strong. He had a 49.5% approval in our last poll, and now he has a 47.8% approval, only a small dip.

But what should be a bigger concern is that his disapproval numbers have been steadily climbing, as those who gave him another chance to prove himself after his re-election seem to be making up their minds, moving his disapproval numbers from 44.5% in November to 48.7% in March to 50.3% now. And the vast majority of that disapproval (at 44.6%) was strongly disapprove over somewhat disapprove (5.8%).

So those who oppose the president headed into the midterms, a key data point of concern for the party in power, are growing in both number and intensity.

Republicans should also be concerned that, while the generic ballot for both US Congress and the state legislature are tied, and unaffiliated voters were fairly split, the unaffiliated voters who said they favored the Democrats were much more likely to say they were “definitely” going to vote for their choice than those who said they were going to vote for Republicans.

So the poll numbers were fairly split, but the enthusiasm seems to be leaning left among unaffiliateds.

In a state where voters are increasingly ditching the two major parties and registering unaffiliated, and where those unaffiliated voters tend to decide the elections, this could be another early warning sign. And our poll also had hints on what might be turning the momentum in this direction.

When we asked about whether tariffs will make prices go up, unaffiliated voters (at 63%) mirrored the state as a whole (at 62%) in thinking (knowing?) they do in fact make prices go up. In the irony of ironies, the one group that did not believe adding a hefty tax to a product would make its prices go up were the Republicans (at 34%).

Even more confusing, and in a total party switch from just a few years ago, somehow, it’s now the Democratic Party (at 75%) who think our trade policy should be about free markets, competition, and lower barriers, with only 13% of Republicans agreeing; while 66% of Republicans instead said they who would prefer subsidies and tariffs (taxes), with only 7% of Democrats agreeing. It’s almost like most people treat politics like a team sport rather than a way to implement their deeply held principles, sadly.

But unfortunately for the Republicans, their new-found love of taxes and big government, at least regarding foreign trade, is a liability with North Carolina voters. Voters in the state believe tariffs raise prices, as was already said above, and these same voters are fairly worried about high prices. Just like inflation was hung around Joe Biden’s neck, which ended up sinking the Democrats in many areas of the country, the tariffs, if/when they are ever fully implemented, could be an easy line of attack against Republicans.

When we asked voters in this poll what the key point of financial stress was in their lives, high prices of household goods (46%), along with the cost of health care (22%), dominated the list over other items, like debt (10%), low wages (8%), or low savings (7%).

So prices remain a high stress factor and political priority for voters in our state. And, right or wrong, the person in the White House often gets the blame during midterm elections when there is a pervasive nationwide economic issue. If prices continue to be a top concern going into 2026, and if voters, especially unaffiliated voters, continue to see tariffs as a source of high prices, look for the Democrats (who are now apparently warriors for capitalism, low taxes, and limited government?) to highlight the issue.

“Latest CJ Poll has warning to GOP on tariffs, prices” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.