NC’s 2026 Senate race looks like Cooper vs Whatley

There are major pre-announcement leaks from the left and the right on who will vie for North Carolina’s empty US Senate seat. The incumbent, Republican Thom Tillis, has already announced he will not seek another term. Now, the picture of who will be the contenders, in what many believe will be the most expensive US Senate race in history, is becoming clearer.

And it appears this battle will be between former Gov. Roy Cooper on the Democratic side and Republican National Committee Chair (and former NC GOP chairman) Michael Whatley.

On the Democratic side, major state news outlets like WRAL and the News & Observer ran stories this week saying Cooper “has decided to run for North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat and plans to announce his campaign before the end of the month,” according to “people familiar with the Democrat’s plans.”

It has been well known that Cooper was under immense pressure from party insiders to run, and that he was considering it, but, if the sources talking to the press are correct, it appears he’s made up his mind and will run.

On the Republican side, a POLITICO article ran on Thursday saying “two people familiar with the decision told POLITICO” that Whatley “will run for Senate in North Carolina and will have the blessing of President Donald Trump after his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, opted not to seek the seat.”

Thursday night, President Trump sent out a message on his Truth social media platform confirming his endorsement of Whatley for the job.

Of course, we want to be fair to any other potential primary contenders and not call the race before filing has even begun… but these are field-clearing announcements.

Top Democrats were angry with former Democratic Congressman Wiley Nickel for daring to announce his intention to run earlier — because the space was clearly reserved for Cooper. When NC Attorney General Jeff Jackson was recently asked who he thinks will be the nominee, he did not give any suggestion that he, or anyone else, should be considered, only Cooper.

Nickel, considering his response on social media on Whatley, doesn’t appear to be clearing the field. But it’s unlikely to matter.

Trump just handpicked hardline loyalist Michael Whatley, known for pushing his extreme agenda as RNC chair, to run for Senate in North Carolina.

Reminder: Whatley has never questioned Trump, not once. If elected, he wouldn’t represent North Carolina. He’d be a rubber stamp for…

— Wiley Nickel 🇺🇸 (@WileyNickel) July 24, 2025

For Republicans, there are sometimes talk of separate “establishment” and “MAGA” wings, but Whatley straddles the divide. He has one large foot in the establishment wing of the party, having run both the state and national party. And with a full early Trump endorsement, it is highly unlikely anyone in the MAGA wing will have much success claiming to be a bigger Trump ally either.

So, in all likelihood, and barring any of the not-all-that-uncommon surprises that pop up in politics, it appears North Carolina will be choosing between Cooper and Whatley next November.

And to influence this decision, unfathomable amounts of money will be raised and spent, a process which is already going into full gear. According to USA Today, using data from Open Secrets, the 2024 US Senate race in Ohio was the most expensive in history, with over $400 million spent. But analysts from left, right, and center are speculating that the 2026 North Carolina race could surpass that record. One Republican insider told Carolina Journal on background that they expected the race to exceed $750 million.

As the Ballotpedia map below shows, part of the reason for that is that Democrats have fairly limited options for places to go on offense. Republicans have 53 seats, and Democrats have 45 (plus two left-wing independents that caucus with them). To have any chance of getting to a 50-50 Senate, they’d need to hold difficult states like Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, while winning Maine, North Carolina, and… Texas? Iowa? The third win in their plan is not as clear and will be much more of a long shot.

But if they take a longer strategy, Democrats may seek to simply stop any further bleeding. Picking up Maine and North Carolina could help Democrats break even if they end up losing a seat or two in places like Georgia or Michigan.

With all this money background in mind, Whatley is uniquely positioned to tap into both state and national fundraising networks, after his time at the helm of both the state and national GOP. Trump giving an early endorsement of Whatley, which a GOP insider confirms is the case, signals that the GOP sees this advantage clearly and wants to prevent any expensive primary fights before they start.

One disadvantage of Whatley may be that he is not as defined in the public’s eye. He does not have as high name ID as Cooper does, nor does he have a record of time as an elected official. That means there is more play in how the public will view him. Like with Trump, Cooper’s image from the public is fairly set, and it will be more difficult to move the needle strongly in either direction. For Whatley, this is not the case, and both sides will rush to define him first.

A lot of how Whatley ends up being seen, and how the election ultimately ends up being decided, will come down to how Trump (who Whatley is tightly linked to) is perceived. If the economy is hit hard by tariffs or other Trump policies lose favor, the midterms will likely not go well for Republicans in general, including in North Carolina’s US Senate race.

For Cooper, his success may hinge on how well he can defend the more controversial elements of his record — like shutting the state down during COVID, the failure of the DMV and storm recovery on his watch, and the rise of divisive “woke” ideology on campuses and in state-government agencies.

All that said, a few things are certain: The race will be nasty; it will be expensive; and we will be seeing both these men’s faces everywhere until late next year.

“NC’s 2026 Senate race looks like Cooper vs Whatley” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.