Above average hurricane season predicted in the Atlantic

June marks the beginning of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. Each year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) releases a forecast outlining what to expect for the upcoming season.

NOAA is predicting a slightly above average season with 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), 6-10 of those storms becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

The above average season is due to multiple factors, including warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”

Hurricane Helene struck western North Carolina hard last September, causing an estimated $60 billion in damage and claiming the lives of more than 100 people across the Tar Heel State.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”

According to NOAA their flagship hurricane model the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), will undergo an upgrade that is expected to result in another 5% improvement of tracking and intensity forecasts that will help forecasters provide more accurate watches and warnings.

“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey is urging residents to get ready now before the peak of the Atlantic season, which is typically in September.

“North Carolina has seen the devastation hurricanes can cause firsthand,” Causey said. “Last year, Hurricane Helene tore through our state, leaving behind massive damage and many people in western North Carolina are still recovering. Early preparation is critical to protect lives and property before a storm makes landfall.”

The Department of Insurance has complied a list to help residents be prepared before, during, and after a storm that can be viewed here.

“Above average hurricane season predicted in the Atlantic” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.