Poll: Cooper holds 14-point lead over Whatley as Trump stays underwater

A new statewide poll has across-the-board good news for Democrats in North Carolina: Former Gov. Roy Cooper leads former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley by 14 points in the state’s open US Senate race, with President Donald Trump’s approval remaining underwater and Democrats ahead on nearly every ballot test.

Those results are from the latest Catawba College–YouGov survey, released June 23. In the poll, Cooper drew 48% support to Whatley’s 34%, with 15% undecided. The margin is largely unchanged from March, when Cooper led by 15 points.

“Cooper’s advantage is not simply a function of Democratic support,” said Michael Bitzer, director of Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service, which wrote and paid for the survey. “His lead is being driven by independents, who currently support him by more than two-to-one over Whatley. That independent vote can often be a decisive factor in statewide North Carolina elections.”

Independents backed Cooper 50% to 23%, with nearly a quarter still undecided. Cooper held 83% of his own party, while Whatley took 77% of Republicans. The race bifurcated along views of the president: two-thirds of those who approve of Trump intend to vote for Whatley, while 77% of those who disapprove favor Cooper.

The poll also showed a divergence on gender, with women favoring Cooper by 20 points, 49% to 29%, and men split more narrowly, 46% to 40%. Regionally, Cooper led by 37 points among city voters and by 11 in rural areas, and by five in the urban suburbs. Whatley led by five in the surrounding suburban and exurban counties.

The Senate numbers came against a political backdrop that Bitzer described as a classic midterm referendum on the president. Trump’s approval stood at 43%, with 54% disapproving. That’s virtually the same as the 42%–55% split recorded in March.

“This year appears to be setting up as a classic midterm environment: a referendum on the president and his party,” Bitzer said. “Cooper has a commanding portion of those North Carolinians who disapprove of the president, which is a majority of likely voters so far.”

Trump’s standing was buoyed by his party: 86% of North Carolina Republicans approved, against 13% who disapproved. Independents drove the overall figure down, with two-thirds disapproving. The president’s strongest region was in exurban counties, where 54% approved. 

Democratic Gov. Josh Stein, by contrast, posted a 53% approval rating, including 53% of independents and 36% of Republicans.

The survey also found signs that Republican voters are redefining how they see themselves. In October 2025 and January 2026, 55% of GOP-aligned respondents called themselves more a supporter of Trump than of the Republican Party. By June, the survey recorded a 24-point swing toward party identification. Among Trump’s own 2024 voters, the share identifying as a “Trump Republican” fell from 60% in January to 43% in June.

“GOP voters remain overwhelmingly Republican, but many appear less likely than they were six months ago to define themselves primarily through their support for Donald Trump,” Bitzer said. He pointed to suburban and female respondents as drivers of what he called a “cooling” toward a Trump-centered identity.

Democrats led the down-ballot tests as well. On the US House generic ballot, Democratic candidates were up 46% to 37%, a three-point gain over March. Democrats led the state House ballot by six points and the state Senate ballot by eight. In the state Supreme Court contest, Democrat Anita Earls held a 5-point edge over Republican Sarah Stevens.

Meanwhile, both parties in Congress remained underwater, with 54% disapproving of congressional Republicans and 51% of Democrats.

The online survey of 1,000 weighted North Carolinians was conducted by YouGov from June 1 to 10, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.83 percentage points.

“Poll: Cooper holds 14-point lead over Whatley as Trump stays underwater” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.