Global turmoil threatens fertilizer supply chain

Fertilizer supply chain disruptions and geopolitical maneuvering are driving up costs and threatening long-term agricultural stability, according to the Fertilizer Institute president and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. Rosenbusch warned, during an event with the NC Chamber, that North Carolina business leaders America must strengthen domestic production to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.

“Fertilizer is produced and consumed globally,” said Rosenbusch. “We think about America as being the No. 1 agricultural country in the world. And even with our agricultural production and strong farming systems, we are only 10% of total fertilizer consumption — 90% of all fertilizers get consumed outside of the United States.” 

Fertilizer can’t really be put in a single basket because it comprises more than 30 different products that are all produced differently. They all have their own markets, prices, and impacts on plant growth and yields for the farmer, according to Rosenbusch. Two of these products (phosphate and potash) are mined products processed into several different products. Nitrogen is a chemically manufactured product.  

Fertilizer is used globally but not necessarily produced in every country. Several countries dominate fertilizer production, with China as the No. 1, according to Rosenbusch. One-third of all Nitrogen produced worldwide comes from China, and 43% of phosphates are produced there. 

Iran is the second-largest exporter of Urea (nitrogen), with about 12% of the global market share. Trinidad is one of the US’s largest suppliers of ammonia (nitrogen). 

On Nov. 14, 2025, most fertilizers were exempted from tariffs, except for ammonia, sulfur, sulfuric acid, and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN), stated Rosenbusch. The US is fairly self-reliant in ammonia, but about 50% of its imports come from Trinidad and Tobago. One plant in Trinidad has completely shut down due to gas supply, port access, and tariff-related issues. 

China dominates global fertilizer consumption (primarily from domestic consumption), with India coming in at second place. Foreign governments use policy to influence markets, and India procures all its fertilizer as a central government. 

“India is a great example of this,” said Rosenbusch. “India procures all of their fertilizer as a central government; it is the world’s largest fertilizer buyer. They then heavily subsidize it and sell it to the farmers very cheaply. It’s a political tool and a form of social welfare.”

There are 108 Nitrogen-producing companies serving the US, 38 phosphate suppliers, and 16 potash suppliers. 

Concerning nitrogen and phosphate, China has increased its total production by 20% this year over last year, according to Rosenbusch. It still maintains restrictions on exports of its fertilizer, yet remains the world’s largest producer of fertilizer: “They are not sharing it with the global marketplace.” 

China’s policy is the No. 1 reason for the current state of fertilizer prices, citing that the country needs it for its farmers. Rosenbusch states that while this is likely true, he believes the policy is intentional.

“They know that it makes them more powerful,” he said. “If they can control fertilizer, they can control food production. And if they can control food production, they can control national security.”

Approximately a third of globally traded Urea, about 20% of phosphates, and more than 50% of the world’s sulfur supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, production plants have suffered damage, some have been shut down due to a lack of natural gas to run them, or physical damage from drone or missile strikes. 

“It could be months or even years to get back to a normal production scale coming out of that region,” said Rosenbusch. “Iran has reached a tipping point where we have to realign how we think about fertilizer and fertilizer supply.”

According to Rosenbusch, the central question is: “How do we become less reliant on foreign supply and mitigate geopolitical shocks?”

The answer Rosenbusch kept returning to was: “Bolstering domestic production, I think especially on the ammonia front. We have a competitive advantage over the rest of the world. And with a lot of the potential long-term impact on Middle Eastern infrastructure, this is a real opportunity for the United States to leapfrog the rest of the world.” 

These plants cost $4-5 billion to build and can take many years to permit. 

When a single country controls almost half of the world’s phosphate supply, it can significantly manipulate markets, Rosenbusch stated. About 97% of US potash is imported, most of which comes from Canada, and is then produced in Canada, Russia, and Belarus. 

Potash was the one product exempted when IEEPA tariffs went into effect on April 1, 2025. When the tariffs were implemented, the Fertilizer Institute reached out to the White House because Russia was not on the list of countries subject to the tariffs, according to Rosenbusch. The White House responded that, because the US has no normalized trading relationship with Russia, no tariff was needed. The Fertilizer Institute responded by saying that Russia is the largest supplier of Urea and UAN (Urea Ammonium Nitrate) to the US. Russia had a 0% tariff rate on US imports, whereas other countries had 10-30%, resulting in Russia’s market share almost doubling when other imports, especially phosphates, were affected. From April 1 until the end of January 2026, not one vessel of phosphates arrived in the US, and about 40% of the US consumption had been met by foreign suppliers. 

“It is a challenging time for farm economics, and we need an abundant supply of fertilizer so that growers can not only plant but achieve the yields that they need, especially with low crop prices,” said Rosenbusch. “That is really the focus of these conversations: How do we help the American farmer get the fertilizer they need?” 

“Global turmoil threatens fertilizer supply chain” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.