NC’s Senate race may not be ‘most expensive in history’ after all

This week, Senate Majority PAC, the Democrat’s national US Senate party committee, announced that they were devoting $31.4 million in ad spending to boost Roy Cooper, as the former governor seeks to win North Carolina’s vacant US Senate seat over the Republican, Michael Whatley.

But, if you read the press release closely, you saw that they also announced even larger injections of cash into the US Senate races in Ohio ($46.4 million) and Maine ($33.4 million). They are likely to make more announcements in places like Georgia, Alaska, and Michigan. Some of these may also be larger than what was dedicated to North Carolina.

Those who have been following the race since before current incumbent Republican US Sen. Thom Tillis announced his retirement will have become familiar with the ubiquitous prediction that this year’s North Carolina US Senate race will be “the most expensive in American history.” There have been predictions that it would clear $500 million, and maybe even reach $1 billion!

I’m going to make my own prediction: It won’t be, unless Whatley’s numbers start to make significant progress. Other states, like in the Senate Majority PAC announcement this week, will get more funds if their races are closer.

In the latest CJ Poll, released yesterday, we found the widest margin between Cooper and Whatley, with 50% of likely general election voters saying they would vote for Cooper and 39% choosing Whatley. That 11-point margin is three-points worse for Whatley than in our last poll in March.

Some of this is due to the wider Republican trends, with Trump’s numbers dropping three points to 42% favorable and 57% unfavorable, and with Democrats now having a seven-point advantage over Republicans in the generic state legislative ballot. If the war in Iran improves and gas prices come down, these numbers are likely to improve, and Republicans numbers will improve along with them.

But there appears to be an additional problem for Whatley, in that he has not successfully introduced himself to the voters. While Cooper had 50% favorable and 39% unfavorable in the poll (identical to his share of the vote), the most common answer on Whatley’s favorability, at 33%, was “never heard of.” Another 19% said “no opinion,” which means about the same thing — he hasn’t defined himself in these voters minds yet.

The fact that 39% chose Whatley in the poll, even as most of the state’s likely voters say they haven’t heard (or have no opinion) of him, signals that he can at least rely on the party floor of about 40%, who pull the lever for the Republican regardless.

But getting from 40% to “50% plus one” could be a Herculean task, especially since polls are already putting Cooper around the 50% mark. That means Whatley will need to gain a lot of voters with a positive introduction and also will need to pry at least some voters away from Cooper, who is seen positively by a slight majority.

Whatley’s team has started seeing some traction on negative messaging around Cooper’s record on criminal justice recently, which could be an opening to chip away at his positive image.

Both Fox News and the New York Post released reports on Cooper’s agreement with certain civil rights groups, which released certain inmates early due to COVID-19 concerns. The reports showed that about half of those released went on to commit additional crimes.

While crime could move the needle some, it is not in the running for top issue among the voters in our poll. The top answer, by far, was “inflation and cost of living.” This issue is one that will likely negatively affect Republicans overall at the moment, since their party has the White House and majorities in Congress.

The war in Iran may be hitting a turning point though, and if gas starts to flow again, it will give Trump and the Republicans a double win — a major foreign policy success and an inevitable drop in gas prices. With a lot of inflation connected to transportation costs and energy overall, Americans would see an improvement in their finances and the negative mood would likely lift.

So Whatley’s fortunes will come down to a successful introduction to the voters, a real slip in Cooper’s positive image, and good news on the national and international front in order to improve the economy and boost Trump’s (and the overall GOP) favorability.

If there is success on all these fronts (and it probably has to be all), the polling should move into more competitive territory, making the race as expensive as initially anticipated. If not, then Democrats are likely to keep their powder dry for other closer races, and big national Republican donors may do the same.

“NC’s Senate race may not be ‘most expensive in history’ after all” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.