Exclusive: NRCC polling puts Buckhout, Davis in dead heat

US Rep. Don Davis, D-NC1; and his challenger, Laurie Buckhout, are currently in a dead heat, according to internal polling by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). 

Those sampled leaned Republican on a generic ballot, with 46% choosing a generic Republican, 42% a Democrat, and 9% undecided. But when specific candidates were offered, Buckhout and Davis tied with 41% each, and 17% were undecided, according to internal polling conducted by the NRCC and provided to the Carolina Journal.

“Vulnerable Democrat Don Davis has spent years collecting a paycheck while voting against things like historic tax relief for farmers, workers, and seniors,” Reilly Richardson, spokesman for NRCC, told the Carolina Journal. “Davis’s positions are out of line with eastern North Carolinians, which is why they’ll elect Laurie Buckhout to represent them.”

Among the Democratic base, Davis is polling at 26% favorable, 26% unfavorable, and 48% undecided. The Democratic Party overall is polling at 36% favorable, 54% unfavorable, and 10% undecided.

Laurie Buckhout won a five-way Republican primary in March and will face off against Davis in the fall. In 2024, Buckhout also won her primary but lost to Davis in the general election. Buckhout is a retired Army colonel and combat commander who served in the Trump administration as acting secretary of defense for cyber policy from March to September of 2025.

“Laurie Buckhout is a great candidate, and we’re thrilled she ran again,” US Rep. Richard Hudson, NRCC Chairman, recently told the Carolina Journal. “She ran one of the closest House races in the country last cycle, losing by a point. I think if we hadn’t had a Libertarian in there, she would have won in a very competitive even district.”

Commenting on the polls results, the NRCC wanted to highlight that the Democratic Party’s image is 18 points underwater and that, among voters polled, nearly 50% didn’t know who Davis is. The NRCC said this poses an even greater challenge in a district Trump won by 10 points. 

But Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, told the Carolina Journal that polls like this should be read with some degree of skepticism.

“You have to take polls released by party organizations with a grain of salt,” Jackson said. “The polling itself might not be biased or flawed, but they are guilty of survivorship bias. When polls have results that the organization does not like, they are not released to the public.”

Jackson said that, despite that word of caution, this poll is about what you would expect to see.

“We have a Democratic incumbent tied with his Republican challenger in a newly redrawn Republican-leaning district,” Jackson said. “The generic race number (46-42 Republican) almost perfectly reflects the district’s partisan lean (R+5). The fact that Davis closes that gap when the candidates are named demonstrates the advantage of incumbency and likely stronger name ID. An incumbent should be ahead at this point in the campaign, so Davis has something to worry about.”

According to Q1 finance reports, Davis well outpaces Buckhout in fundraising. Davis brought in more than $1 million in the first quarter and $3.3 million so far this cycle. He currently has $2.9 million in cash on hand, according to Q1 finance reports from the FEC. Buckhout raised more than $600,000 in the first quarter, according to campaign finance reports. With no candidate loans, she began the second quarter with $1.5 million in cash on hand. 

North Carolina Democratic Party campaign consultants that the Carolina Journal asked for comment did not respond by time of publication.

“Exclusive: NRCC polling puts Buckhout, Davis in dead heat” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.