Cook Political Report shifts NC Senate race from toss-up to lean Democrat

A leading political ranking model has moved North Carolina’s open United States Senate race into the Democratic column, citing a national political environment turning against Republicans.

Cook Political Report on April 13 shifted its rating for the North Carolina seat from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.” That would put the Tar Heel State as a potential net pickup for Democrats in the fall. The move was one of four Senate ratings changes announced by analyst Jessica Taylor.

“With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats’ favor,” Taylor wrote.

The North Carolina race pits former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper against former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.

Recent polling has shown Cooper with a consistent lead, but his advantage varies by survey. A Carolina Journal poll of likely voters conducted March 22-23 showed Cooper leading by 8 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted March 13-14 found the race closer, with Cooper ahead 47% to 44%, within the poll’s margin of error. A Catawba College–YouGov survey conducted March 9-18 put Cooper ahead 48% to 34% among likely voters including leaners, a 14-point advantage.

Whatley’s name recognition remains a persistent challenge. Forty-four percent of North Carolina voters said they were simply unfamiliar with the former state party chairman in the Catawba poll, including significant shares of Republicans and independents.

“Cooper has run statewide six times, while Whatley is relatively unknown,” said Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation. “That essentially gives Cooper the political advantage that an incumbent would enjoy. Cooper never lost in any of his six statewide races going back to 2000, but Whatley’s campaign can take some solace in the fact that Cooper underperformed his polling numbers in both his campaigns for governor.”

Along with North Carolina, Cook moved Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff’s seat from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat,” citing a fractious GOP primary. Ohio shifted from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” where recent polling shows former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a statistical tie with appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Nebraska moved from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” where independent Dan Osborn is challenging GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts.

Despite the shifts, Cook stopped short of forecasting a Democratic Senate majority. Taylor noted the GOP remains the “narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber,” with the likeliest outcome a Democratic pickup of one to three seats — one short of the four needed for a majority.

“Cook Political Report shifts NC Senate race from toss-up to lean Democrat” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.