Cooper, Whatley in statistical dead heat for US Senate seat

The race for North Carolina’s open United States Senate seat is a statistical dead heat, with Democrat Roy Cooper holding a razor-thin lead over Republican Michael Whatley at 47% to 44%, according to a poll of North Carolina voters by the Democratic-aligned firm Public Policy Polling. The difference is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.2%.

The survey of 556 North Carolina voters, conducted March 13-14, shows that 9% of the electorate remains undecided.

Cooper, a well-known figure statewide for decades as a former two-term governor and four-term attorney general, maintains a net positive favorability rating, with 47% viewing him favorably compared to 40% unfavorably. In contrast, Whatley, the former chair of the state GOP, faces a recognition gap: 32% of voters view him favorably and 33% unfavorably, but 36% are “not sure” about him. That compares to just 13% for Cooper.

“Cooper will likely lead in the polls, sometimes more, sometimes less, through Election Day,” said Dr. Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation. “He is much better known than Whatley and has a lot more money. That will probably be enough to keep ahead of the slight baseline advantage Republicans have in the state. Cooper has never lost a statewide election, but he underperformed his polling numbers in both his races for governor. If he is up by three in the polls in November, we could be in for a long night on Election Day.”

The new poll also shows that several state judicial races are locked in near-ties, with a large percentage of voters undecided.

All four contests — for the state Supreme Court and three seats on the NC Court of Appeals — are separated by just one to three percentage points, well within the margin of error. Between 16% and 17% of voters are “not sure” in each of these races:

• In the state Supreme Court race, Democrat incumbent Anita Earls leads Republican Sarah Stevens 43% to 40%.

• For the Court of Appeals Seat No. 1, Democrat incumbent John Arrowood is ahead of Republican Michael Byrne, 43% to 40%.

• Republican George Bell holds a slight lead over Democrat incumbent Toby Hampson for Court of Appeals seat No. 2, 43% to 41%.

• Democrat Christine Walczyk edges out Republican Craig Collins for Court of Appeals seat No. 3, 42% to 41%.

Beyond the headline Senate contest, Democrat Gov. Josh Stein maintains a net positive favorability rating, with 45% viewing him favorably against 33% unfavorably. But 22% remain “not sure” about Stein. On the Republican side, US Sen. Thom Tillis’ favorability stands at just 22%, while 47% view him unfavorably. Meanwhile, voter opinions on President Donald Trump remain sharply divided, with 47% favorable and 50% unfavorable, and minimal undecided voters.

The survey also shows continued demographic divides that played out during the 2024 presidential election. Women lean strongly toward Democratic candidates, favoring Cooper over Whatley 54% to 37%, while men prefer Whatley over Cooper 52% to 40%. Black voters overwhelmingly back the Democratic option — with 79% for Cooper to 8% support for Whatley — while white voters side with Whatley 55% to 38%. Voters who are younger or with more formal education skew Democratic while older, less formally educated voters lean Republican.

The poll was conducted using a blended methodology, with 37% of respondents reached via landline and 63% via text.

“Cooper, Whatley in statistical dead heat for US Senate seat” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.