UPDATE: UNC-Duke round 2 – Wilson out but can Heels pull off the upset

North Carolina took a huge hit on Friday when it was announced that star freshman Caleb Wilson’s season is over after he broke his right thumb in practice. The news comes just ahead of the 17th-ranked Tar Heels’ showdown with top-ranked Duke. Needless to say, that’s devastating news for the Tar Heels (24-6, 12-6 ACC), who have won four straight after knocking off Clemson on Tuesday. The Blue Devils are coming off a blowout of NC State and have not lost since falling to UNC a month ago. They’re 28-2 on the year, 16-1 in league play, and are a 5.5 point favorite in this game. Tip-off is set for 6:30 on WBT.

The first game between these teams in Chapel Hill turned into an instant classic, as Seth Trimble knocked in the game-winning three with less than half a second to play to lead the Tar Heels to a 71-68 win. Since giving up a 12-point halftime lead in that game, Duke has clamped down on defense. The Blue Devils have not allowed more than 64 points in any game since falling to the UNC, and allow just 62.5 points a contest, which is tops in the ACC and third in the country. Star freshman Cameron Boozer continues to be the go-to guy, leading the Blue Devils in points, rebounds and assists. He’s the favorite for Rookie of the Year and Player of the Year in the ACC, especially since Wilson is out. Wilson’s absence makes life much more difficult for the Tar Heels against Duke and moving forward, who will also have to deal with 6’11 Patrick Ngongba and Boozer’s twin brother Cayden inside.

The Blue Devils also feature some excellent guard play with Isaiah Evans and Caleb Foster, who combine to average nearly 23 points a game. And freshmen Nik Khamenia and Dame Sarr have both stepped up lately, particularly from behind the arc. Both are shooting over 42% from three over the last five games, giving the Blue Devils the consistent outside shooting they were lacking earlier this season. The Tar Heels will need to counter with strong outside shooting of their own to have a chance in this one. And they need to get off to a fast start, something they have struggled to do on the road this season.

This game certainly has lost some of its star appeal now that Wilson is out. But the Tar Heels have gone 5-1 in the six games without him, with multiple players stepping up in the past few weeks. It certainly makes an already difficult challenge even harder, and for those superstitious UNC fans, here’s an interesting stat: the Tar Heels finished their home slate undefeated in the Dean Dome after the win over Clemson, that’s a feat they have accomplished five times before in the school’s history. In those other five seasons, the Heels went to the Elite 8 twice and won the national championship three times. It remains to be seen if they can replicate that success. In the meantime, the top-ranked Blue Devils await, and knocking them off in one of the toughest venues in college basketball would be no small feat. But the Heels have plenty of experience beating top-ranked teams. In fact, they hold the NCAA record for most wins over the AP #1-ranked team with 14. And eight of those 14 are against Duke. Can the Tar Heels make it nine and 15 on Saturday? It might not look likely, but anything can happen in this rivalry – go Tar Heels!