How will independents turn in 2026?

In March of 2022, unaffiliated voters (often called independents) surpassed registered Democrats in North Carolina to become the largest voting bloc. Republicans, also growing but at a much slower pace, are set to pass Democrats in the not-too-distant future, as Democrats slowly bleed registrations. The numbers as of late December 2025 have unaffiliated voters making up 2,967,716 of the state’s 7,640,734 voters, or 38.84%. The two major parties, however, are 8-points behind, with virtually identical numbers — 2,311,366 voters for Democrats (30.25%) and 2,310,761 for Republicans (30.24%).

Unaffiliated voters are far more likely to be 18-40, and are more likely to be from out-of-state, according to UNC Chapel Hill‘s demography project. They are also more likely to be white, Hispanic, or Asian, and less likely to be black.

In a 2022 analysis of Tar Heel unaffiliated voters, “Growing and Distinct: The Unaffiliated Voter as Unmoored Voter,” by Dr. Michael Bitzer of Catawba College, Dr. Chris Cooper of Western Carolina, Dr. Whitney Ross Manzo of Meredith College, and Dr. Susan Roberts of Davidson College, they found that about half were true swing voters that chose some candidates from each party, while the other half were basically partisans, voting consistently for one side or the other. Half of these partisan unaffiliated voted predictably for Republicans and the other half for Democrats.

So, this almost too-convenient breakdown of voters is basically 30% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 40% unaffiliated, with half of those being swing voters and a quarter reliably for one party and a quarter for the other. Simple math tells you, that when you take each major party’s 30% of registered voters each party, then add the one quarter of unaffiliateds that reliably vote for them (one quarter of 40% equals 10%), that only brings them up to 40% of the total electorate. So even if they hold onto 100% of “their” voters, they need another 10% of total voters, which comes out to half of the swing voter portion of unaffiliateds.

Whichever party can win the majority of swing voters, while hanging onto their own voters, therefore, is bound to win in 2026. Sounds about as simple as when Charles Barkley was giving commentary during March Madness, and I heard him say something very similar to, “It’ll come down to whichever team is able to score more points than the other.”

In many states, this isn’t the case, of course. One party dominates, or at least has a clear advantage, so winning swing voters isn’t as important. North Carolina is truly purple in statewide races, though, with the slightest lean right. And having Roy Cooper, who was able to win six straight statewide races for attorney general and governor, at the top of the Democratic ticket likely takes any slight advantage for Republicans away.

So how will these unaffiliated swing voters swing this November? A few signs give the Democrats the early advantage. First, Cooper has had a large lead in polling, not only over the Republican frontrunner Michael Whatley, but over less-likely GOP candidates as well. In CJ’s last poll, in November, Cooper (47.3%) had a 8.7 point lead over Whatley (38.6%). This lead widened to more than 10 points when Cooper ran against less-known Republican candidate Don Brown. Notably, considering the subject of this article, unaffiliated voters gave Cooper a 16-point lead over either Republican polled.

In addition to the headwinds at the top of the ticket, Democrats went from being 1.6-points behind Republicans in September to enjoying a 4.1-point lead on the generic state legislative ballot. Part of this is due to unaffiliated voters firmly shifting towards Democrats, with 38% choosing the Republican and 46% choosing a generic Democrat. The generic congressional ballot often directly mirrors this number, but Republicans were able to redraw congressional districts this fall where they will still likely pick up one additional seat.

Democrats will also have the advantage of having someone from the opposing party in the White House. This usually brings a midterm advantage. President Trump’s numbers have slid to 46% favorable 53% favorable in North Carolina. And unaffiliated voters specifically are souring on the president, at 41% favorable to 55% unfavorable. So unless these numbers turn around, they could be a big drag on Republicans this cycle.

Looking at unaffiliated voters’ concerns, 32% see the tariffs as helping the economy and 56% see them as hurting. Similarly, 33% say they are confident about the economy, and 64% say they are not confident. They also land somewhere between Democrats and Republicans on direction of the country and the state, but lean towards a negative assessments of both.

Unaffiliated voters are younger and less attached (by definition) to either of the two parties. If they continue to see the economy, President Trump, and Republicans less favorably than Cooper and the Democrats, it will spell trouble for Republicans. But the economy is fairly strong in North Carolina, and other issues are sure to come up between now and November. To win, each party will need to make the case to unaffiliated voters that they can be better trusted to govern on whichever issues emerge as most important to this important voting bloc, which at the moment is the economy.

“How will independents turn in 2026?” was originally published on www.carolinajournal.com.