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Stephen Wiley is the North Carolina Republican House Caucus Director. His job is to get GOP candidates elected to the NC House of Representatives. He expects the economy to drive the election in November, and notes that no party in modern history has gained seats in a midterm election during a recession… except once. In 2002, after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, Republicans won seats in the first midterm under newly-elected President George W. Bush.

But with inflation hitting record highs, interest rates spiking, and the likelihood of a recession, Democrats are in position to pay a price at the polls. However, Democrats hope abortion and an announcement from Donald Trump that he’ll run again in 2024 will help motivate their voters to turnout this year.

Democrats and their media allies will also try to limit enthusiasm among GOP voters. William Jacobsen at Legal Insurrection calls it “Operation Demoralize.” He says it is a standard play from the political playbook, and conservatives should not be fooled by narratives between now and November that are designed to depress turnout.